Polish President, Lech Kaczynski, murdered?
CONTENTS . Part 1a . Part 1b . Part 2 . Part 3 . Part 4a . Part 4b . Part 5 . Part 6
Part 1a
1 . Possible facts about the Pilot, Airplane and Airport
2 . Where's the Polish Air Force 101 cockpit?
POSSIBLE FACTS ABOUT THE PILOT, PLANE AND AIRPORT
THE PILOT
... cool-headed, knew Smolensk Airport well, spoke Russian fluently
1 . Capt. Protasiuk, 36, had 2,937 hours of flight-time under his belt, according to his commanding officer, Lt. Col. Ryszard Raczynski, head of the 36th Special transport aviation regiment, in an article published 21 April by the Wall Street Journal. The Colonel went on to say, "He was very cool-headed and experienced."
2 . The WSJ further stated, "Capt. Protasiuk knew Smolensk Airport well, according to Col. Raczynski. On April 7 [three days before the fatal crash], Capt. Protasiuk flew as co-pilot on the flight that carried the Polish prime minister's delegation to Smolensk for an earlier Katyn commemoration."
3 . In another article, dated 13 April, the WSJ writes, "colleagues of the Polish pilot Captain Arkadiusz Protasiuk, interviewed in Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, said he spoke fluent Russian and was familiar with Smolensk airport."
THE PLANE
... built 20 years ago, most highly upgraded version of TU-154 series, overhauled December 2009, TU-154 has an average safety record in the industry
1 . Polish Air Force 101 was a 20-year-old (manufactured 1990) Russian-built Tupolev TU-154M. According to Wikipedia, "the Tu-154M ... [is] the most highly upgraded version [of the Tupolev 154 series] ... It uses the more fuel-efficient Soloviev D-30 KU-154 turbofans. Together with significant aerodynamic refinement, this led to much lower fuel consumption and therefore longer range, as well as lower operating costs. The aircraft has new double-slotted (instead of triple-slotted) flaps, with an extra 36-degree position ... which allows reduction of noise on approach.
2 . According to the WSJ article dated 21 April, Col. Raczynski said, "the Tupolev [Polish Air Force 101 TU-154m] was equipped with the second-best of three grades of Instrument Landing Systems [ILS], requiring 300 meters of visibility to land safely".
3 . The presidential aircraft had undergone a major overhaul in December 2009 and Aleksey Gusev, the head of the maintenance plant, carried out the work. Apparently he recently told a Polish TV station that the TU-154M should not have had technical problems. The crash happened 138 flight hours after the most recent overhaul.
4 . Wikipedia also reported on the accident history of the TU-154 series : "There have been 66 serious flight incidents with Tu-154s, including 37 hull-losses involving fatalities. Six of those incidents resulted from terrorist or military action including an accidental missile shoot down by the Ukraine, several from poor runway conditions in winter (including one which struck snow ploughs on the runway), cargo overloading by airlines in the lapse of post-Soviet federal safety standards (several cases), and mid-air collisions due to faulty air traffic control or mis-communication. Other incidents have resulted from mechanical problems (two cases prior to 2001), running out of fuel on unscheduled extended route, pilot error, and cargo fires. The Tu-154 is described as having an average (or better than expected) safety record considering its length of service and heavy use in the most demanding conditions."
Regarding the accidents of the Tupolev Tu-154 series, though it may sound as an excuse to some, many of the regions where the Tu-154 operates are in regions where less than sophisticated air traffic control towers are prevalent and in what is often considered a very difficult weather environment. To this we could also add that many clients of the TU-154 are not always able to afford the more costly navigation equipment found on the better-known commercial airliners. However, this said, none of these appeared to be the case in the Polish presidential air crash of 10 April.
5 . Apparently, either the presidential plane 101 or its twin, the 102, made the same flight from Warsaw to Smolensk on 7 April with either the same crew or a part of the same crew that flew the 101 to Smolensk on 10 April.
THE AIRPORT
... served as a military airport till 2009, no record of previous crashes
1 . Smolensk North Airport (Smolensk North Military Aerodrome) is a decommissioned military airbase (since October 2009) in Smolensk Oblast, Russia, located 4 km / 2.5 miles north of the city of Smolensk. It is now used as Smolensk's sole airport for both civil and military flights.
The airport was originally built in the 1920s ... with a runway 2100 m long and 150 m wide, capable of handling planes over 75 tons in weight.
2 . There is no such thing as an international airport standard which compares airports and rates them on a scale, i.e., 1 to 10. Consequently, it's difficult to accuse the Smolensk airport of being a third class airport. Until 2009 Russia's military flew in and out of the airport year round.
3 . I could find no record of previous air crashes at the Smolensk North Airport (military or civilian).